Modeling program LOC growth with recurrence equations
Models predicting the growth, in lines of code, of a program are based on the assumption that future growth follows the same pattern of behavior as past growth. One such model is the recurrence relation:
, where: is LOC at time , is the LOC carried over from release , and is the LOC added after release .
The solution to this recurrence relation is: , where: is the LOC at time .
The plot below shows the growth predicted by this model, for various values of and (code+data):
How close is the fit between this model and actual project growth? The plot below shows the growth in LOC for FreeBSD between 1993 and 2006, data from Herraiz; the red line shows the above equation fitted using non-linear regression, with the blue line showing a fitted linear regression model of the form (code+data):
Plugging the fitted coefficients into the recurrence equation when gives a prediction for the final maximum LOC in FreeBSD of:
The FreeBSD growth is unusual in not having a slow start to its growth, or rather no data is available prior to 1993.
Long-lived, successful projects usually attract new developers, and over time some developers leave. The size of a project, and the predispositions of those involved, can limit the number of active core developers. The above model can be applied to the growth in the number of active developers, i.e.,
, where: is active developers at time , is the developers ceasing to be active , and is the number of new active developers at . The solution is:
Adding the developer growth equation in to the LOC model, we get:
, where is now multiplied by the number of developers at time , i.e., . The solution to these recurrence equations is somewhat involved (note: if you are using an LLM to check the answers, ChatGPT makes multiple mistakes, but the Grok response contains just one algebra mistake); when the equation is:
Checking this more complicated model against another project, the plot below shows the growth of the GNU C library between 1990 and 2011, data from Gonzalez-Barahona, Robles, Herraiz and Ortega; the red line is the fitted equation (code+data):
Unsurprisingly, I was not able to fit the more complicated growth model, using non-linear least squares, to the glibc LOC data. The problem was not being able to mimic the slow initial growth rate. I suspect that the developer growth model might be just wrong. Development work on a project does not last forever, and the number of developers will start decreasing at some point. For large projects, the Rayleigh distribution has been found to approximate staffing levels.
Data on project developer numbers over time is rare. The Linux kernel data shows an exponential developer growth rate, but I suspect that this is mostly caused by many one-time only developer contributing towards a new device driver (which are responsible for much of the Kernel growth).
Chinchilla Scaling: A replication using the pdf
The paper Chinchilla Scaling: A replication attempt by Besiroglu, Erdil, Barnett, and You caught my attention. Not only a replication, but on the first page there is the enticing heading of section 2, “Extracting data from Hoffmann et al.’s Figure 4”. Long time readers will know of my interest in extracting data from pdfs and images.
This replication found errors in the original analysis, and I, in turn, found errors in the replication’s data extraction.
Besiroglu et al extracted data from a plot by first converting the pdf to Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG) format, and then processing the SVG file. A quick look at their python code suggested that the process was simpler than extracting directly from an uncompressed pdf file.
Accessing the data in the plot is only possible because the original image was created as a pdf, which contains information on the coordinates of all elements within the plot, not as a png or jpeg (which contain information about the colors appearing at each point in the image).
I experimented with this pdf-> svg -> csv route and quickly concluded that Besiroglu et al got lucky. The output from tools used to read-pdf/write-svg appears visually the same, however, internally the structure of the svg tags is different from the structure of the original pdf. I found that the original pdf was usually easier to process on a line by line basis. Besiroglu et al were lucky in that the svg they generated was easy to process. I suspect that the authors did not realize that pdf files need to be decompressed for the internal operations to be visible in an editor.
I decided to replicate the data extraction process using the original pdf as my source, not an extracted svg image. The original plots are below, and I extracted Model size/Training size for each of the points in the left plot (code+data):
What makes this replication and data interesting?
Chinchilla is a family of large language models, and this paper aimed to replicate an experimental study of the optimal model size and number of tokens for training a transformer language model within a specified compute budget. Given the many millions of £/$ being spent on training models, there is a lot of interest in being able to estimate the optimal training regimes.
The loss model fitted by Besiroglu et al, to the data they extracted, was a little different from the model fitted in the original paper:
Original:
Replication:
where: is the number of model parameters, and is the number of training tokens.
If data extracted from the pdf is different in some way, then the replication model will need to be refitted.
The internal pdf operations specify the x/y coordinates of each colored circle within a defined rectangle. For this plot, the bottom left/top right coordinates of the rectangle are: (83.85625, 72.565625), (421.1918175642, 340.96202) respectively, as specified in the first line of the extracted pdf operations below. The three values before each rg
operation specify the RGB color used to fill the circle (for some reason duplicated by the plotting tool), and on the next line the /P0 Do
is essentially a function call to operations specified elsewhere (it draws a circle), the six function parameters precede the call, with the last two being the x/y coordinates (e.g., x=154.0359138125, y=299.7658568695), and on subsequent calls the x/y values are relative to the current circle coordinates (e.g., x=-2.4321790463 y=-34.8834544196).
Q Q q 83.85625 72.565625 421.1918175642 340.96202 re W n 0.98137749 0.92061729 0.86536915 rg 0 G 0.98137749 0.92061729 0.86536915 rg 1 0 0 1 154.0359138125 299.7658568695 cm /P0 Do 0.97071849 0.82151775 0.71987163 rg 0.97071849 0.82151775 0.71987163 rg 1 0 0 1 -2.4321790463 -34.8834544196 cm /P0 Do |
The internal pdf x/y values need to be mapped to the values appearing on the visible plot’s x/y axis. The values listed along a plot axis are usually accompanied by tick marks, and the pdf operation to draw these tick marks will contain x/y values that can be used to map internal pdf coordinates to visible plot coordinates.
This plot does not have axis tick marks. However, vertical dashed lines appear at known Training FLOP values, so their internal x/y values can be used to map to the visible x-axis. On the y-axis, there is a dashed line at the 40B size point and the plot cuts off at the 100B size (I assumed this, since they both intersect the label text in the middle); a mapping to the visible y-axis just needs two known internal axis positions.
Extracting the internal x/y coordinates, mapping them to the visible axis values, and comparing them against the Besiroglu et al values, finds that the x-axis values agreed to within five decimal places (the conversion tool they used rounded the 10-digit decimal places present in the pdf), while the y-axis values appeared to differ differed by about 10%.
I initially assumed that the difference was due to a mistake by me; the internal pdf values were so obviously correct that there had to be a simple incorrect assumption I made at some point. Eventually, an internal consistency check on constants appearing in Besiroglu et al’s svg->csv code found the mistake. Besiroglu et al calculate the internal y coordinate of some of the labels on the y-axis by, I assume, taking the internal svg value for the bottom left position of the text and adding an amount they estimated to be half the character height. The python code is:
y_tick_svg_coords = [26.872, 66.113, 124.290, 221.707, 319.125] y_tick_data_coords = [100e9, 40e9, 10e9, 1e9, 100e6] |
The internal pdf values I calculated are consistent with the internal svg values 26.872, and 66.113, corresponding to visible y-axis values 100B and 40B. I could not find an accurate means of calculating character heights, and it turns out that Besiroglu et al’s calculation was not accurate.
I published the original version of this article, and contacted the first two authors of the paper (Besiroglu and Erdil). A few days later, Besiroglu replied with details of why they thought that the 40B line I was using as a reference point was actually at either 39.5B or 39.6B (based on published values for the Gopher budget on the x-axis), but there was uncertainty.
What other information was available to resolve the uncertainty? Ah, the right plot has Model size on the x-axis and includes lines that appear to correspond with axis values. The minimum/maximum Model size values extracted from the right plot closely match those in the original paper, i.e., that ’40B’ line is actually at 39.554B (mapping this difference from a log scale is enough to create the 10% difference in the results I calculated).
My thanks to Tamay Besiroglu and Ege Erdil for taking the time to explain their rationale.
The y-axis uses a log scale, and the ratio of the distance between the 10B/100B virtual tick marks and the 40B/100B virtual tick marks should be . The Besiroglu et al values are not consistent with this ratio; consistent values below (code+data):
# y_tick_svg_coords = [26.872, 66.113, 124.290, 221.707, 319.125] y_tick_svg_coords = [26.872, 66.113, 125.4823, 224.0927, 322.703] |
When these new values are used in the python svg extraction code, the calculated y-axis values agree with my calculated y-axis values.
What is the equation fitted using these corrected Model size value? Answer below:
Replication:
Corrected size:
The replication paper also fitted the data using a bootstrap technique. The replication values (Table 1), and the corrected values are below (standard errors in brackets; code+data):
Parameter Replication Corrected A 482.01 370.16 (124.58) (148.31) B 2085.43 2398.85 (1293.23) (1151.75) E 1.82 1.80 (0.03) (0.03) α 0.35 0.33 (0.02) (0.02) β 0.37 0.37 (0.02) (0.02) |
where the fitted equation is:
What next?
The data contains 245 rows, which is a small sample. As always, more data would be good.
Patches for the code of Peter Turchin’s Attrition Warfare Model
The paper Empirically Testing Predictions of an Attrition on Warfare Model for the War in Ukraine, by Peter Turchin, recently showed up during one of my regular searches for software engineering data. A quick scan of the paper founded that it is very empirical, and that the analysis coding was done in R; I could not resist checking out the source code.
One of my first jobs was helping academics fix coding issues with the programs they had written to solve scientific/engineering problems, and this R code reminded me of several habits of scientists who code: the single letter variables used in equations are directly mapped to identifier names, and there is no structure to the code. The code is so short (86 lines) that the lack of structure is a minor inconvenience; a few thousand lines, and it becomes a major headache. The code for Imperial’s COVID model was ten times larger.
Two mistakes in the code/paper jumped out at me, leading to this post. First, some background.
The empirical predictions in the paper are intended to provide insight into who is likely to win the ongoing Ukraine/Russia war. Fighting requires soldiers and these are killed/wounded over time. The country that does not have enough soldiers to at least keep the opposition at bay, looses.
Turchin has proposed what he calls the Attrition War model, based on Lanchester’s laws (various attempts to validate Lanchester’s models, lots of maths to shake a stick at), and the paper solves this model’s set of eight differential equations (each country has the same set of four equations; the connection between the two sets is that one country’s casualty rate and Army size is influenced by the opposing country’s stock of war matériel). The four quantities modelled are casualties, army size, stock of warfare matériel, and production capacity.
Getting predictions out of differential equations requires being able to find a solution to the equations and feeding in numeric values for the various parameters.
Solving the equations is a maths problem, i.e., no knowledge of military matters required. Selecting the equations to solve and the numeric values to feed into the solution is what requires military knowledge. I don’t know anything about military matters; the following analysis is purely related to writing code to solve a set of differential equations, using the equations plus numeric values in Turchin’s November 2023 paper.
For obvious reasons, countries involved in the war do not publish information on the quantities modelled by these equations (which are also likely to be time-dependent). Turchin addresses the changeable nature of the numeric values by introducing various random components into his Attrition model.
From the perspective of solving the eight equations and presenting the results, the following are the two mistakes that jumped out at me (both involving the implementation of the random component):
- When a model contains a random component, there will be a huge/infinite number of possible solutions. The takeaway plots in the paper show a single solution (for each of the four variables/two countries), with the width of the plotted lines and their fluctuating appearance suggesting that they contain multiple solutions. The plot below left shows the solution for artillery shell production over time, as it appears in the paper, while the plot below right shows 100 solutions (each line is a different solution; code):
The wedge of lines shows the range of possible solutions (each line drawn overwrites anything previously drawn, and plotting with transparent colors would show the density of solution at a given point; I decided to keep the code simple).
- All the random components are assumed to have a Gaussian distribution. When distribution information is not available, this is usually a safe choice. However, two of the random components must always have non-negative values (i.e., casualties and matériel used can never be negative). The Poisson distribution is the obvious candidate, and a simple search turned up an empirical paper agreeing with this choice (at least for casualties).
The plot below left shows one solution for the number of casualties over time, using the original code, while the plot below right shows 100 solutions using a Poisson distribution for the random component (code):
With a Poisson random component, the solutions don’t meander as much, and the variance is smaller than when a Gaussian is used. Technically, it is a more accurate model (if more variance is to be expected a Negative Binomial distribution could be used; see commented out code)
The latest (November) UK government estimate of Russian casualties is 300K, roughly three times larger than predicted by Turchin’s model. Changing the value for the ‘conversion rate of expended matériel to casualties’ from to brings the casualty prediction inline with current estimates (we have been hearing a lot about the accuracy of the Ukrainian targetting; see code for details).
I have also reworked the code to add some structure, e.g., separating out solving the equations and setting the initial conditions.
Turchin used the traditional approach to solving differential equations, the one we are taught at school. Before seeing the code, I was half expecting to see a System dynamics approach. The advantage of a systems dynamic approach is flexibility (i.e., easier to add more components) and visualization (i.e., a chart showing what feeds into/out of what); an example. There is an R-based book: System Dynamics Modelling with R.
Effort estimation’s inaccurate past and the way forward
Almost since people started building software systems, effort estimation has been a hot topic for researchers.
Effort estimation models are necessarily driven by the available data (the Putnam model is one of few whose theory is based on more than arm waving). General information about source code can often be obtained (e.g., size in lines of code), and before package software and open source, software with roughly the same functionality was being implemented in lots of organizations.
Estimation models based on source code characteristics proliferated, e.g., COCOMO. What these models overlooked was human variability in implementing the same functionality (a standard deviation that is 25% of the actual size is going to introduce a lot of uncertainty into any effort estimate), along with the more obvious assumption that effort was closely tied to source code characteristics.
The advent of high-tech clueless button pushing machine learning created a resurgence of new effort estimation models; actually they are estimation adjustment models, because they require an initial estimate as one of the input variables. Creating a machine learned model requires a list of estimated/actual values, along with any other available information, to build a mapping function.
The sparseness of the data to learn from (at most a few hundred observations of half-a-dozen measured variables, and usually less) has not prevented a stream of puffed-up publications making all kinds of unfounded claims.
Until a few years ago the available public estimation data did not include any information about who made the estimate. Once estimation data contained the information needed to distinguish the different people making estimates, the uncertainty introduced by human variability was revealed (some consistently underestimating, others consistently overestimating, with 25% difference between two estimators being common, and a factor of two difference between some pairs of estimators).
How much accuracy is it realistic to expect with effort estimates?
At the moment we don’t have enough information on the software development process to be able to create a realistic model; without a realistic model of the development process, it’s a waste of time complaining about the availability of information to feed into a model.
I think a project simulation model is the only technique capable of creating a good enough model for use in industry; something like Abdel-Hamid’s tour de force PhD thesis (he also ignores my emails).
We are still in the early stages of finding out the components that need to be fitted together to build a model of software development, e.g., round numbers.
Even if all attempts to build such a model fail, there will be payback from a better understanding of the development process.
Comments on the COVID-19 model source code from Imperial
At the end of March a paper modelling the impact of various scenarios on the spread of COVID-19 infections, by the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, appears to have influenced the policy of the powers that be. This group recently started publishing their modelling code on GitHub (good for them).
Most of my professional life has been spent analyzing other peoples’ code, for one reason or another (mostly Fortran, then Pascal, and then C). I had heard that the Imperial software was written in C, but the released code is written in R (as of six hours ago, there is the start of a Python version). Ok, I can work with R, but my comments will be general, since I don’t have lots of in depth experience reading R code.
The code comes from a research context, and is evolving, i.e., some amount of messiness is to be expected.
There is not a lot of code to talk about (248 lines setting things up, 111 lines for a Stan model, 371 lines of plotting code, and 85 lines of utility code). The analysis is performed by creating a model using the Stan statistical inference language (in which the high level structure of the problem is specified, compiled to a lower level form and then run; the Stan language is very similar to R). These days, lots of problems are coded using a relatively small number of lines that call fancy libraries to do the heavy lifting. It is becoming rare to have to write tens of thousands of lines of code to solve a problem.
I have two points to make about the code, all designed to reduce the likelihood of mistakes being made by the person working on the source. These points mainly apply to the Stan code, because that is where the important stuff happens, but are equally applicable to all code.
- Numeric literals are embedded in the code, values include:
2.4
,1.0
,0.5
,0.03
,1e-5
, and1e-9
. These values obviously mean something to the person who wrote the code, and they can probably be interpreted by experts in the spread of virus infections. But why are they scattered about the code, rather than appearing together (as a sequence of assignments to variables with meaningful names)? Having all the constants in one place makes it easier to spot when a mistake has been made, e.g., one value has been changed without a corresponding change in another value; it also makes it easier for people new to the code to figure out what is going on, - when commenting out code, make it very obvious, e.g., have
/**********************
on its own line, and*****************************/
on its own line. Using just/*
and*/
makes it easy to miss that code has been commented out.
Why have they started a Python implementation? Perhaps somebody on the team is more comfortable working with Python (when deadlines loom, it is always best to go with what you know).
Having both an R and Python version is good, in that coding mistakes are likely to show up as inconsistencies in the results produced. It’s always good to have the output of two independently written programs to compare (apart from the fact it may cost twice as much).
The README mentions performance issues. I imagine that most of the execution time is spent in the Stan code, so R vs. Python is not a performance issue.
Any reader with expertise tuning Stan models for performance might like to check out the code. I’m sure the Imperial folk would be happy to hear about worthwhile speed-ups.
Update
The R source code of the EuroMOMO model, which aims to “… explain number of deaths by a baseline, influenza activity and extreme ambient temperature.”
Predictive Modeling: 15th COW workshop
I was at a very interesting workshop on Predictive Modelling and Search Based Software Engineering on Monday/Tuesday this week, and I am going to say something about the talks that interested me. The talks were recorded, and the videos will appear on the website in a few weeks. The CREST Open Workshop (COW) runs roughly once a month and the group leader, Mark Harman, is always on the lookout for speakers, do let him know if you are in the area.
- Tim Menzies talked about how models built from one data set did well on that dataset but often not nearly as well on another (i.e., local vs global applicability of models). Academics papers usually fail to point out that any results might not be applicable outside the limited domain examined, in fact they often give the impression of being generally applicable.
Me: Industry likes global solutions because it makes life simpler and because local data is often not available. It is a serious problem if, for existing methods, data on one part of a companies’ software development activity is of limited use in predicting something about a different development activity in the same company and completely useless at predicting things at a different company.
- Yuriy Brun talked about something that is so obviously a good idea, it is hard to believe that it had not been done years ago. The idea is to have your development environment be aware of what changes other software developers have made to their local copies of source files you also have checked out from version control. You are warned as soon your local copy conflicts with somebody else’s local copy, i.e., a conflict would occur if you both check in your local copy to the central repository. This warning has the potential to save lots of time by having developers talk to each about resolving the conflict before doing any more work that depends on the conflicting change.
Crystal is a plug-in for Eclipse that implements this functionality, and Visual Studio support is expected in a couple of releases time.
I have previously written about how multi-core processors will change software development tools, and I think this idea falls into that category.
- Martin Shepperd presented a very worrying finding. An analysis of the results published in 18 papers dealing with fault prediction found that the best predictor (over 60%) of agreement between results in different papers was co-authorship. That is, when somebody co-authored a paper with another person, any other papers they published were more likely to agree with other results published by that person than with results published by somebody they had not co-authored a paper with. This suggests that each separate group of authors is doing something different that significantly affects their results; this might be differences in software packages being used, differences in configuration options or tuning parameters, so something else.
It might be expected that agreement between results would depend on the techniques used, but Shepperd et al’s analysis found this kind of dependency to be very small.
An effect is occurring that is not documented in the published papers; this is not how things are supposed to be. There was lots of interest in obtaining the raw data to replicate the analysis.
- Camilo Fitzgerald talked about predicting various kinds of feature request ‘failures’ and presented initial results based on data mined from various open source projects; possible ‘failures’ included a new feature being added and later removed and significant delay (e.g., 1 year) in implementing a requested feature. I have previously written about empirical software engineering only being a few years old and this research is a great example of how whole new areas of research are being opened up by the availability of huge amounts of data on open source projects.
One hint for PhD students: It is no good doing very interesting work if you don’t keep your web page up to date, so people can find out more about it
I talked to people who found other presentations very interesting. They might have failed to catch my eye because my interest or knowledge of the subject is low or I did not understand their presentation (a few gave no background or rationale and almost instantly lost me); sometimes the talks during coffee were much more informative.
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