Data-set update to “Empirical software engineering using R”
The pile of papers, books and data-sets, relating to previously released draft chapters of my Empirical software engineering book, has been growing, and cluttering up my mind. I decided to have a clear-out.
A couple of things stood out.
There are around 25 data-sets that have been promised but not yet arrived. If you encounter anybody who mentions they promised to send me data, please encourage them to spend some time doing this. I don’t want to add a new category, promised but never delivered, to the list of email responses.
There has been an increase in data-sets not being used because I already have something better. This is a good sign, data quality is increasing. One consequence is that a growing number of ‘historical’ data-sets have fallen by the wayside. This is a good thing, most data-sets analysed in papers are very low quality and only used because nothing else was available.
One of my reasons for making draft releases was to prompt people to suggest data I had missed. This has not happened yet; come on people, suggest some data I don’t yet know about.
About a third of the pile got included in the latest draft, a third had been superseded by something better, and a third are still waiting for promised data.
Now, back to the reliability chapter.
Grace Hopper: Manager, after briefly being a programmer
In popular mythology, Grace Hopper is a programmer who wrote one of the first compilers. I think the reality is that Hopper did some programming, but quickly moved into management; a common career path for freshly minted PhDs and older people entering computing (Hopper was in her 40s when she started); her compiler management work occurred well after many other compilers had been written.
What is the evidence?
Hopper is closely associated with Cobol. There is a lot of evidence for at least 28 compilers in 1957, well before the first Cobol compiler (can a compiler written after the first 28 be called one of the first?)
The A-0 tool, which Hopper worked on as a programmer in 1951-52, has been called a compiler. However, the definition of Compile used sounds like today’s assembler and the definition of Assemble used sounds like today’s link-loader (also see: section 7 of Digital Computers – Advanced Coding Techniques for Hopper’s description of what A-2, a later version, did).
The ACM’s First Glossary of Programming Terminology, produced by a committee chaired by Hopper in June 1954.
Routine – a set of coded instructions arranged in proper sequence to direct the computer to perform a desired operation or series of operations. See also Subroutine.
Compiler (Compiling Routine) – an executive routine which, before the desired computation is started, translates a program expressed in pseudo-code into machine code (or into another pseudo-code for further translation by an interpreter). In accomplishing the translation, the compiler may be required to:
…
Assemble – to integrate the subroutines (supplied, selected, or generated) into the main routine, i.e., to:
Adapt – to specialize to the task at hand by means of preset parameters.
Orient – to change relative and symbolic addresses to absolute form.
Incorporate – to place in storage.
Hopper’s name is associated with work on the MATH-MATIC and ARITH-MATIC Systems, but her name does not appear in the list of people who wrote the manual in 1957. A programmer working on these systems is likely to have been involved in producing the manual.
After the A-0 work, all of Hopper’s papers relate to talks she gave, committees she sat on and teams she led, i.e., the profile of a manager.
À la carte Entropy
My observation that academics treat Entropy as the go-to topic, when they have no idea what else to talk about, has ruffled a few feathers. David Clark, one of the organizers of a workshop on Information Theory and Software Testing has invited me to give a talk on Entropy (the title is currently Entropy for the uncertain, but this state might change :-).
Complaining about the many ways entropy is currently misused in software engineering would be like shooting fish in a barrel, and equally pointless. I want to encourage people to use entropy in a meaningful way, and to stop using Shannon entropy just because it is the premium brand of entropy.
Shannon’s derivation of the iconic formula 
depends on various assumptions being true. While these conditions look like they might hold for some software engineering problems, they clearly don’t hold for others. It may be possible to use other forms of entropy for some of these other problems; Shannon became the premium brand of entropy because it was first to market, the other entropy products have not had anyone championing their use, and academics follow each other like sheep (it’s much easier to get a paper published by using the well-known brands).
Shannon’s entropy has been generalized, with the two most well-known being (in the limit 
, both converge to Shannon entropy):
Rényi entropy in 1961: 
Tsallis entropy in 1988: 
All of these formula reduce a list of probabilities to a single value. A weighting is applied to each probability, and this weighted value is summed to produce a single value that is further manipulated. The probability weighting functions are plotted below:
Under what conditions might one of these two forms of entropy be used (there are other forms)? I have been rummaging around looking for example uses, and could not find many.
There are some interesting papers about possible interpretations of the 
parameter in Tsallis entropy: the most interesting paper I have found shows a connection with the correlation between states, e.g., preferential attachment in networks. This implies that Tsallis entropy is the natural first candidate to consider for systems exhibiting power law characteristics. Another paper suggests 
derives from variation in the parameter of an exponential equation.
Some computer applications: a discussion of Tsallis entropy and the concept of non-extensive entropy, along with an analysis of statistical properties of hard disc workloads, the same idea applied to computer memory.
Some PhD thesis: Rényi entropy, with 
, for error propagation in software architectures, comparing various measures of entropy as a metric for the similarity of program execution traces, plus using Rényi entropy in cryptography
As you can see, I don’t have much to talk about. I’m hoping my knowledgeable readers can point me at some uses of entropy in software engineering where the author has put some thought into which entropy to use (which may have resulted in Shannon entropy being chosen; I’m only against this choice when it is made for brand name reasons).
Registration for the workshop is open, so turn up and cheer me on.
Roll your own weighting plot:
p_vals=seq(0.001, 1.001, by=0.01) plot(p_vals, -p_vals*log(p_vals), type="l", col="red", ylim=c(0, 1), xaxs="i", yaxs="i", xlab="Probability", ylab="Weight") q=0.5 lines(p_vals, p_vals^q, type="l", col="blue") q=2 lines(p_vals, p_vals^q, type="l", col="green") |
Double exponential performance hit in C# compiler
Yesterday I was reading a blog post on the performance impact of using duplicated nested types in a C# generic class, such as the following:
class Class<A, B, C, D, E, F> { class Inner : Class<Inner, Inner, Inner, Inner, Inner, Inner> { Inner.Inner inner; } } |
Ah, the joys of exploiting a language specification to create perverse code 🙂
The author, Matt Warren, had benchmarked the C# compiler for increasing numbers of duplicate types; good man. However, the exponential fitted to the data, in the blog post, is obviously not a good fit. I suspected a double exponential might be a better fit and gave it a go (code+data).
Compile-time data points and fitted double-exponential below:
Yes, for compile time the better fit is: 
and for binary size: 
, where 
, 
are some constants and 
the number of duplicates.
I had no idea what might cause this pathological compiler performance problem (apart from the pathological code) and did some rummaging around. No luck; I could not find any analysis of generic type implementation that might be used to shine some light on this behavior.
Ideas anybody?
Huge effort data-set for project phases
I am becoming a regular reader of software engineering articles written in Chinese and Japanese; or to be more exact, I am starting to regularly page through pdfs looking at figures and tables of numbers, every now and again cutting-and-pasting sequences of logograms into Google translate.
A few weeks ago I saw the figure below, and almost fell off my chair; it’s from a paper by Yong Wang and Jing Zhang. These plots are based on data that is roughly an order of magnitude larger than the combined total of all the public data currently available on effort break-down by project phase.
Projects are often broken down into phases, e.g., requirements, design, coding (listed as ‘produce’ above), testing (listed as ‘optimize’), deployment (listed as ‘implement’), and managers are interested in knowing what percentage of a project’s budget is typically spent on each phase.
Projects that are safety-critical tend to have high percentage spends in the requirements and testing phase, while in fast moving markets resources tend to be invested more heavily in coding and deployment.
Research papers on project effort usually use data from earlier papers. The small number of papers that provide their own data might list effort break-down for half-a-dozen projects, a few require readers to take their shoes and socks off to count, a small number go higher (one from the Rome period), but none get into three-digits. I have maybe a few hundred such project phase effort numbers.
I emailed the first author and around a week later had 2,570 project phase effort (man-hours) percentages (his co-author was on marriage leave, which sounded a lot more important than my data request); see plot below (code+data).
I have tried to fit some of the obvious candidate distributions to each phase, but none of the fits were consistently good across the phases (see code for details).
This project phase data is from small projects, i.e., one person over a few months to ten’ish people over more than a year (a guess based on the total effort seen in other plots in the paper).
A typical problem with samples in software engineering is their small size (apart from bugs data, lots of that is available, at least in uncleaned form). Having a sample of this size means that it should be possible to have a reasonable level of confidence in the results of statistical tests. Now we just need to figure out some interesting questions to ask.
Projects chapter added to “Empirical software engineering using R”
The Projects chapter of my Empirical software engineering book has been added to the draft pdf (download here).
This material turned out to be harder to bring together than I had expected.
Building software projects is a bit like making sausages in that you don’t want to know the details, or in this case those involved are not overly keen to reveal the data.
There are lots of papers on requirements, but remarkably little data (Soo Ling Lim’s work being the main exception).
There are lots of papers on effort prediction, but they tend to rehash the same data and the quality of research is poor (i.e., tweaking equations to get a better fit; no explanation of why the tweaks might have any connection to reality). I had not realised that Norden did all the heavy lifting on what is sometimes called the Putnam model; Putnam was essentially an evangelist. The Parr curve is a better model (sorry, no pdf), but lacked an evangelist.
Accurate estimates are unrealistic: lots of variation between different people and development groups, the client keeps changing the requirements and developer turnover is high.
I did turn up a few interesting data-sets and Rome came to the rescue in places.
I have been promised more data and am optimistic some will arrive.
As always, if you know of any interesting software engineering data, please tell me.
I’m looking to rerun the workshop on analyzing software engineering data. If anybody has a venue in central London, that holds 30 or so people+projector, and is willing to make it available at no charge for a series of free workshops over several Saturdays, please get in touch.
Reliability chapter next.
Is this fitted line believable? A visual answer
The only information contained in the statement that a straight line has been fitted to the data, is that the data contains two or more points; modern tools will find a fit to anything that is thrown at them, without raising a sweat; a quadratic equation requires three or more points and so on.
How believable is an equation that has been fitted to data?
There are various technical ways of answering this question, but as a first pass I prefer a simple visual approach. How believable do the lines in the plots below appear to you (code+data)?
Now I could fire p-values at you, or show you various regression diagnostic plots. Would you be any the wiser? If you were it’s because you know some technical details and switched your brain on to use them. People hate having to switch their brain’s on; a technique that works with the brain switched off is much more practical.
Adding confidence intervals to a plot is one technique (below left uses the default 95% interval) and another is to draw the line of a LOESS fit (below right uses R’s loess function):
The confidence intervals (in blue) are showing us that there is huge uncertainty in the fitted equation; no technical details needed.
The Local in LOESS means that some local set of points are used to fit each part of the line. That green line is telling us that the mean value of the data does not continue to increase, but levels off (the data is from a NASA presentation that showed an ever-increasing fitted line; which is the view the speaker wanted people to believe).
If somebody shows you a line that has been fitted to the data, ask to see the confidence intervals and the loess from a fit. The willingness of the person to show you these, or their ability to do so, will tell you a lot.
Data analysis with a manual mindset
A lot of software engineering data continues to be analysed using techniques designed for manual implementation (i.e., executed without a computer). Yes, these days computers are being used to do the calculation, but they are being used to replicate the manual steps.
Statistical techniques are often available that are more powerful than the ‘manual’ techniques. They were not used during the manual-era because they are too computationally expensive to be done manually, or had not been invented yet; the bootstrap springs to mind.
What is the advantage of these needs-a-computer techniques?
The main advantage is not requiring that the data have a Normal distribution. While data having a Normal, or normal-like, distribution is common is the social sciences (a big consumer of statistical analysis), it is less common in software engineering. Software engineering data is often skewed (at least the data I have analysed) and what appear to be outliers are common.
It seems like every empirical paper I read uses a Mann-Whitney test or Wilcoxon signed-rank test to compare two samples, sometimes preceded by a statement that the data is close to being Normal, more often being silent on this topic, and occasionally putting some effort into showing the data is Normal or removing outliers to bring it closer to being Normally distributed.
Why not use a bootstrap technique and not have to bother about what distribution the data has?
I’m not sure whether the reason is lack of knowledge about the bootstrap or lack of confidence in not following the herd (i.e., what will everybody say if my paper does not use the techniques that everybody else uses?)
If you are living on a desert island and don’t have a computer, then you will want to use the manual techniques. But then you probably won’t be interested in analyzing software engineering data.
Histogram using log scale creates a visual artifact
The following plot appears in the paper Stack Overflow in Github: Any Snippets There?
Don’t those twin peaks in the top-left/bottom-right plots reach out and grab your attention? I immediately thought of fitting a mixture of two Poisson distributions; No, No, No, something wrong here. The first question of data analysis is: Do I believe the data?
The possibility of fake data does not get asked until more likely possibilities have been examined first.
The y-axis is a count of things and the x-axis shows the things being counted; source files per project and functions per file, in this case.
All the measurements I know of show a decreasing trend for these things, e.g., lots of projects have a few files and a few projects have lots of files. Twin peaks is very unexpected.
I have serious problems believing this data, because it does not conform to my prior experience. What have the authors done wrong?
My first thought was that a measuring mistake had been made; for some reason values over a certain range were being incorrectly miscounted.
Then I saw the problem. The plot was of a histogram and the x-axis had a logarithmic scale. A logarithmic axis compresses the range in a non-linear fashion, which means that variable width bins have to be used for histograms and the y-axis represents density (not a count).
Taking logs and using the result to plot a histogram usually produces a curve having a distorted shape, not twin peaks. I think the twin peaks occur here because integer data are involved and the bin width just happened to have the ‘right’ value.
Looking at the plot below, the first bin contains values for x=1 (on an un-logged scale), the second bin for x=2, the third bin for x=3, but the fourth bin contains values for x=c(4, 5, 6). The nonlinear logarithmic compression, mapped to integers, means that the contents of three values are added to a single bin, creating a total that is larger than the third bin.
The R code that generated the above plot:
x=1:1e6 y=trunc(1e6/x^1.5) log_y=log10(y) hist(log_y, n=40, main="", xlim=c(0, 3)) |
I tried to mimic the pattern seen in the first histogram by trying various exponents of a power law (a common candidate for this kind of measurement), but couldn’t get anything to work.
Change the bin width can make the second peak disappear, or rather get smeared out. Still a useful pattern to look out for in the future.
Expected variability in a program’s SLOC
If 10 people independently implement the same specification in the same language, how much variation will there be in the length of their programs (measured in lines of code)?
The data I have suggests that the standard deviation of program length is one quarter of the mean length, e.g., 10k mean length, 2.5k standard deviation.
The plot below (code+data) shows six points from the samples I have. The point in the bottom left is based on 6,300 C programs from a programming contest question requiring solutions to the 3n+1 problem and one of the points on the right comes from five Pascal compilers for the same processor.
Multiple implementations of the same specification, in the same language, are very rare. If you know of any, please let me know.
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